Quick answer
This is Josh & Jay's preview ahead of the Bank of Canada decision around September 12, 2025. Inflation (CPI) was running near 2.4% and unemployment near 7.1% at the time.
Josh explains what changed in just two weeks — jobs and inflation data — to move a coin-flip into a near-sure thing. (The Bank did cut to 2.50% on September 17.)
The rate path (2023–2025)
The Bank of Canada policy rate over the 2½ years around this decision.
Inflation vs the 2% target
Total CPI and the Bank's core measure against its 2% target — the “why” behind the decision. Inflation was 2.4% at the time.
Heads up: this covers the decision on September 12, 2025. Rates move constantly — for the rate and options that apply to you today, book a call.
Frequently asked
What does a Bank of Canada decision mean for my mortgage?
If you're in a variable-rate mortgage, a cut lowers your rate (and payment or the interest portion) right away, while a hold leaves it unchanged. If you're on a fixed rate, it matters most at renewal. For what it means for your specific situation, book a call with Josh.