Edmonton Home Team

Bank of Canada · August 28, 2025

Canada vs the US — previewing the September decision

Under a month from the September 17 decision — the same day as the US Fed — Josh weighs the odds of a cut.

Quick answer

This is Josh & Jay's preview ahead of the Bank of Canada decision around August 28, 2025. Inflation (CPI) was running near 1.9% and unemployment near 7.1% at the time.

Policy rate
Inflation (CPI)
1.9%
Unemployment
7.1%

With both central banks announcing on the same day, Josh looks at how the Canada–US picture was shaping the call.

The rate path (2023–2025)

The Bank of Canada policy rate over the 2½ years around this decision.

2.6%3.3%4.0%4.6%Feb ’23Aug ’25Oct ’25

Inflation vs the 2% target

Total CPI and the Bank's core measure against its 2% target — the “why” behind the decision. Inflation was 1.9% at the time.

2.1%3.0%3.8%4.7%2% targetFeb ’23Aug ’25Oct ’25
Total CPICore (CPI-median)2% target

Heads up: this covers the decision on August 28, 2025. Rates move constantly — for the rate and options that apply to you today, book a call.

Frequently asked

What does a Bank of Canada decision mean for my mortgage?

If you're in a variable-rate mortgage, a cut lowers your rate (and payment or the interest portion) right away, while a hold leaves it unchanged. If you're on a fixed rate, it matters most at renewal. For what it means for your specific situation, book a call with Josh.

What does this mean for your mortgage?

Book a quick call and we’ll turn the Bank’s move into your real payment and options.