Rate watch
Bank of Canada rate updates
Every rate decision, explained in plain language for Edmonton — cuts, holds and the predictions in between. Josh and Jay have covered each one on video; here’s the running timeline.
Quick answer
The Bank of Canada's policy (overnight) rate is currently 2.25% (as of Aug ’26), with inflation around 2.8%. Below is every decision since December 2023 — cuts, holds and predictions — each with a plain-language breakdown from Josh & Jay.
The rate cycle & inflation (last 4 years)
2026
No rate cut — but Edmonton is a different story
The fourth hold in a row, with the rate steady at 2.25%. As Josh and Jay explain, Alberta’s market looks different from the rest of Canada.
January 2026 — Bank holds again
On January 28, 2026 the Bank held at 2.25%, tempering talk of early-2026 cuts.
2025
Bank stops dropping rates — holds in December
On December 10, 2025 the Bank held at 2.25% (after an October cut) — with the market eyeing early 2026 for any next move.
Another cut — the rate drops to 2.25%
On October 29, 2025 the Bank cut by another quarter point to 2.25% — the lowest since 2022, and good news for variable-rate holders and anyone renewing.
The Bank cuts again — first cut since March
On September 17, 2025 the Bank cut 25 bps to 2.50% — its first cut since March, as growth slowed and tariffs fed into prices.
Odds of a September cut jump to ~85%
Days before the September 17 decision, the market’s implied odds of a cut had jumped from about 35% to about 85%.
Canada vs the US — previewing the September decision
Under a month from the September 17 decision — the same day as the US Fed — Josh weighs the odds of a cut.
Bank holds its rate steady — why?
On July 30, 2025 the Bank held again at 2.75% — no cut, no hike, unchanged since March.
Where are the Bank’s cuts headed? (July preview)
Ahead of the late-July decision, Josh looks at where the Bank’s cuts are headed after the June hold.
Bank holds in April — with a prediction for June
After back-to-back cuts, the Bank held at 2.75% on April 16, 2025. Josh gives his read and a call on the next meeting.
Bank cuts again amid tariff worries
A quarter-point cut to 2.75% — against the backdrop of a possible tariff war with the US.
January prediction — a quarter-point cut priced in
A week out from the January 29 decision, the market was pricing roughly a 77% chance of a quarter-point cut.
2024
Another half-point cut to close 2024
On December 11, 2024 the Bank cut by another half point to 3.25% — a second straight outsized move to support the economy.
The Bank slashes rates — a bigger, half-point cut
October brought a larger, half-point cut to 3.75% — the Bank moving faster as inflation returned to target.
Rates keep falling — a third straight cut
On September 4, 2024 the Bank cut again to 4.25% — a third consecutive cut, with rates clearly on the way down.
Rates come down again — and more cuts are coming
The Bank cut again to 4.50% in July, matching expectations — a second step down with a signal that more would follow.
Historic: the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut
On June 5, 2024 the Bank of Canada cut to 4.75% — its first cut since it began raising rates, the moment buyers had been waiting for.
Should you lock a rate hold before the announcement?
Ahead of the June decision: pre-approval vs prequalification, and why getting a rate hold in before an announcement can protect you.
Bank holds in April — but a June cut looks likely
Another hold at 5.00% in April 2024, with a June cut starting to look like the real possibility.
Bank holds — but drops clues about a cut
The second of 2024’s eight decisions was another hold at 5.00%, but signs of a coming cut were building.
The first 2024 decision — Bank holds again
The Bank kept its rate at 5.00% at its first announcement of 2024 — as expected after the aggressive hikes of 2022–23.
Rate levels and decisions are as of each video’s date and change often. For the rate that applies to your situation today, book a call.
Frequently asked
What is the Bank of Canada policy rate right now?
The Bank of Canada's policy (target for the overnight) rate is 2.25% (as of Aug ’26). It's the rate that flows through to prime and variable mortgage rates.
Does the Bank of Canada set my mortgage rate?
Not directly. The Bank sets the overnight rate, which moves prime — so variable-rate mortgages track it closely. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields instead, though the two are related.
How often does the Bank of Canada announce rate decisions?
Eight times a year, on fixed announcement dates. Josh & Jay cover each one — every decision back to December 2023 is in the timeline below.
Wondering what the next decision means for you?
We’ll translate the Bank of Canada’s move into your actual payment and options.